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Aug 4, 202319 min read

The future of trade and tourism between India and Pakistan: Opportunities and challenges

India vs Pakistan: A Rivalry Beyond Cricket

India and Pakistan are two neighboring countries in South Asia that share a long history of political rivalry, cultural affinity, and economic interdependence. The two nations were once part of British India, but became independent in 1947 after a bloody partition that divided them along religious lines. Since then, they have fought four wars and several skirmishes over the disputed territory of Kashmir and other issues. They have also tried to improve their relations through dialogue, trade, cultural exchanges, and confidence-building measures, but have faced setbacks due to terrorism, border tensions, and nuclear threats. India and Pakistan are not only rivals in politics and security, but also in geography, culture, economy, and military. In this article, we will explore the various aspects of the India-Pakistan rivalry and its implications for the region and the world.

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History

Partition and Independence

The history of India and Pakistan dates back to the British colonial rule in the Indian subcontinent. The British Raj ruled over a vast territory that included present-day India, Pakistan, Bangladesh, and parts of Afghanistan, Myanmar, and Iran. The British Raj was divided into two types of territories: the directly administered provinces and the indirectly administered princely states. The provinces were governed by British officials, while the princely states were ruled by local rulers who acknowledged British sovereignty. The British Raj also had a complex system of laws and policies that discriminated between different religious groups, such as Hindus, Muslims, Sikhs, Christians, etc.

The Indian independence movement was a long and diverse struggle that aimed to end British colonial rule and establish a sovereign nation. The movement involved various political parties, leaders, ideologies, and methods of resistance. One of the major political parties was the Indian National Congress (INC), which was founded in 1885 and advocated for a secular and democratic India. Another major political party was the All-India Muslim League (AIML), which was founded in 1906 and advocated for a separate homeland for the Muslims of India. The INC and the AIML initially cooperated with each other in their quest for independence, but later developed differences over the issue of partition.

The partition of India was the result of a series of events that led to the creation of two independent states: India and Pakistan. The main factors that contributed to the partition were: the demand for a separate Muslim state by the AIML led by Muhammad Ali Jinnah; the failure of the Cabinet Mission Plan of 1946 that proposed a federal solution for India; the communal violence that erupted in various parts of India in 1946-47; and the decision of the last British Viceroy Lord Mountbatten to announce the partition plan on June 3, 1947. The partition plan divided British India into two dominions: India and Pakistan. Pakistan comprised of two wings: West Pakistan (present-day Pakistan) and East Pakistan (present-day Bangladesh). India comprised of the rest of British India, except for some princely states that had the option to join either India or Pakistan or remain independent.

The partition of India was one of the most traumatic events in modern history. It resulted in the largest mass migration in human history, as millions of people crossed the new borders to seek refuge in their respective countries. It also resulted in widespread violence, as communal riots broke out between Hindus, Muslims, Sikhs, and other groups. It is estimated that more than a million people were killed and more than 15 million people were displaced due to the partition.

Wars and Conflicts

India and Pakistan have fought four wars and several skirmishes since their independence in 1947. The main cause of these wars and conflicts has been the disputed territory of Kashmir, which is claimed by both countries in its entirety but is divided by a de facto border called the Line of Control (LoC). The other causes of these wars and conflicts have been related to water sharing, border disputes, terrorism, nuclear proliferation, etc.

The first war between India and Pakistan took place in 1947-48 over Kashmir. The war started when tribal raiders from Pakistan invaded Kashmir with the support of the Pakistani army. The ruler of Kashmir, Maharaja Hari Singh, who had initially decided to remain independent, acceded to India in exchange for military assistance. India sent its troops to Kashmir to repel the invaders and appealed to the United Nations (UN) for a peaceful resolution. The UN intervened and brokered a ceasefire in January 1949. The UN also passed a resolution that called for a plebiscite (a vote) to decide the fate of Kashmir. However, this resolution was never implemented due to various reasons.

The second war between India and Pakistan took place in 1965 over Kashmir again. The war started when Pakistan launched a covert operation called Operation Gibraltar to infiltrate militants into Kashmir to incite an uprising against Indian rule. The operation failed to achieve its objective and instead provoked a counterattack by India across the LoC. The war escalated into a full-scale conflict that involved air strikes, tank battles, and naval engagements. The war ended with a ceasefire mediated by the Soviet Union and the United States in September 1965. The war resulted in a stalemate, as neither side gained any significant territory or advantage.

The third war between India and Pakistan took place in 1971 over the issue of East Pakistan (present-day Bangladesh). The war started when the Pakistani army launched a brutal crackdown on the Bengali population of East Pakistan, who were demanding autonomy and democracy. The crackdown triggered a mass exodus of refugees into India and a guerrilla war by the Bengali nationalists, who formed the Mukti Bahini (Liberation Army). India supported the Mukti Bahini and intervened militarily in December 1971. The war ended with a decisive victory for India and its allies, as Pakistan surrendered in East Pakistan and Bangladesh emerged as a new nation.

The fourth war between India and Pakistan took place in 1999 over the Kargil sector of Kashmir. The war started when Pakistani soldiers and militants occupied strategic heights along the LoC in the Kargil district of Indian-administered Kashmir. The intrusion was detected by India in May 1999 and led to a fierce military response by India to evict the intruders. The war lasted for two months and ended with a withdrawal of Pakistani forces from Kargil under international pressure. The war was the first direct conflict between two nuclear-armed states and raised fears of a nuclear escalation.

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Diplomatic Relations

India and Pakistan have had a turbulent diplomatic relationship since their independence in 1947. The two countries have established and severed diplomatic ties several times, depending on the state of their bilateral relations. They have also engaged in various initiatives to improve their relations, such as the Shimla Agreement of 1972, the Lahore Declaration of 1999, the Agra Summit of 2001, the Composite Dialogue Process of 2004-2008, the Ufa Statement of 2015, etc. However, these initiatives have often been disrupted by incidents of violence, terrorism, or mistrust.

One of the major challenges for India-Pakistan relations has been the issue of terrorism. India has accused Pakistan of sponsoring terrorist groups that operate in Kashmir and other parts of India, such as Lashkar-e-Taiba, Jaish-e-Mohammed, Hizbul Mujahideen, etc. Pakistan has denied these allegations and claimed that it only provides moral and diplomatic support to the Kashmiri people's right to self-determination. Some of the major terrorist attacks that have strained India-Pakistan relations include: the 2001 Indian Parliament attack, the 2008 Mumbai attacks, the 2016 Pathankot attack, the 2016 Uri attack, the 2019 Pulwama attack, etc.

Another major challenge for India-Pakistan relations has been the issue of nuclear weapons. Both countries have developed nuclear weapons and delivery systems since their first nuclear tests in 1974 (India) and 1998 (Pakistan). They have also adopted different nuclear doctrines and postures that reflect their security concerns and strategic objectives. India has a policy of no first use and credible minimum deterrence, while Pakistan has a policy of first use and full spectrum deterrence. Both countries have also established mechanisms to prevent accidental or unauthorized use of nuclear weapons, such as hotlines, agreements, dialogues, etc.

Despite these challenges, India and Pakistan have also shown some signs of cooperation and goodwill in their relations. They have exchanged prisoners, humanitarian aid, cultural delegations, sports teams, etc. They have also cooperated on some regional and multilateral platforms, such as the South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation (SAARC), the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO), etc. They have also expressed their willingness to resolve their outstanding issues through peaceful dialogue and mutual respect.

Geography

Land Area and Borders

India and Pakistan are two large countries in South Asia that share a common border that runs for about 3,323 km. The border is divided into five segments: the International Border (IB), the Line of Control (LoC), the Actual Ground Position Line (AGPL), the Sir Creek boundary, and the Radcliffe Line.

The IB is the official border between India and Pakistan that was demarcated by the Radcliffe Commission in 1947. It runs for about 2,308 km from Gujarat to Jammu and Kashmir. The IB is marked by pillars, fences, gates, etc. and is patrolled by border security forces from both sides.

The LoC is the de facto border between India and Pakistan in Kashmir that was established after the 1948-49 war. It runs for about 740 km from Jammu and Kashmir to the Siachen Glacier. The LoC is not a recognized international boundary and is subject to frequent violations and clashes by both sides.

The AGPL is the de facto border between India and Pakistan in the Siachen Glacier region. It runs for about 110 km from the northern end of the LoC to the Karakoram Pass. The AGPL is also not a recognized international boundary and is disputed by both sides.

The Sir Creek boundary is the maritime boundary between India and Pakistan in the Arabian Sea. It runs for about 96 km along a creek that separates the Indian state of Gujarat from the Pakistani province of Sindh. The Sir Creek boundary is also disputed by both sides over the interpretation of a 1914 agreement.

The Radcliffe Line is the boundary between India and Pakistan in Bengal and Punjab that was drawn by the Radcliffe Commission in 1947. It runs for about 3,323 km from West Bengal to Punjab. The Radcliffe Line was based on the principle of partitioning British India along religious lines, but it also resulted in the division of many districts, villages, families, and properties.

Climate and Natural Resources

India and Pakistan have different climatic zones that range from tropical to temperate. India has a monsoon climate that is influenced by the seasonal winds that bring rainfall and dryness. India has four seasons: winter (December-February), summer (March-May), monsoon (June-September), and post-monsoon (October-November). Pakistan has a continental climate that is influenced by its location and altitude. Pakistan has three seasons: winter (November-February), summer (March-June), and monsoon (July-September).

India and Pakistan have varying degrees of natural resources that are essential for their development and security. India has abundant water resources, such as rivers, lakes, glaciers, groundwater, etc. India also has significant coal, oil, gas, minerals, and renewable energy sources, such as solar, wind, hydro, etc. Pakistan has limited water resources, as most of its rivers originate from outside its territory and are subject to disputes with India. Pakistan also has moderate coal, oil, gas, minerals, and renewable energy sources, such as solar, wind, hydro, etc.

Population and Demography

India and Pakistan have large and diverse populations that are characterized by different ethnicities, languages, religions, cultures, and social indicators. India has a population of about 1.38 billion people (2020 estimate), making it the second-most populous country in the world after China. Pakistan has a population of about 220 million people (2020 estimate), making it the fifth-most populous country in the world after China, India, the United States, and Indonesia.

India has a multi-ethnic population that consists of various groups such as Indo-Aryans, Dravidians, Mongoloids, Austroasiatics, etc. India has 22 official languages and hundreds of regional languages and dialects. The most widely spoken languages are Hindi, Bengali, Telugu, Marathi, Tamil, Urdu, etc. India has a secular constitution that guarantees freedom of religion to all its citizens. The major religions in India are Hinduism (79.8%), Islam (14.2%), Christianity (2.3%), Sikhism (1.7%), Buddhism (0.7%), Jainism (0.4%), etc.

Pakistan has a predominantly Muslim population that consists of various ethnic groups such as Punjabis, Sindhis, Pashtuns, Balochis, Muhajirs, etc. Pakistan has two official languages: Urdu and English. Urdu is the national language and the lingua franca of the country, while English is the official language and the medium of education and administration. The regional languages of Pakistan are Punjabi, Sindhi, Pashto, Balochi, Saraiki, etc. Pakistan has an Islamic constitution that declares Islam as the state religion and grants religious freedom to its minorities. The major religions in Pakistan are Islam (96.5%), Hinduism (1.9%), Christianity (1.6%), Sikhism (0.1%), etc.

Culture

Religion and Festivals

India and Pakistan have different dominant religions that shape their cultural identities and values. India is a predominantly Hindu country, while Pakistan is a predominantly Muslim country. However, both countries also have significant religious minorities that contribute to their cultural diversity and harmony.

India and Pakistan also share some common festivals that reflect their historical and cultural ties. Some of these festivals are:

Eid: Eid is the most important festival for Muslims that marks the end of Ramadan, the holy month of fasting. Eid is celebrated with prayers, charity, feasting, and exchanging greetings and gifts.

Diwali: Diwali is the most important festival for Hindus that marks the victory of light over darkness, good over evil, and knowledge over ignorance. Diwali is celebrated with lighting lamps, candles, and fireworks, worshipping deities, exchanging sweets and gifts, and performing rituals.

Holi: Holi is a festival of colors that celebrates the arrival of spring, the triumph of love, and the joy of life. Holi is celebrated by throwing colored powder and water on each other, singing, dancing, and bonfires.

Guru Nanak Jayanti: Guru Nanak Jayanti is the birth anniversary of Guru Nanak, the founder of Sikhism. It is celebrated by Sikhs and other followers of Guru Nanak with prayers, hymns, processions, langars (community meals), and charity.

Cuisine and Clothing

India and Pakistan have similar cuisines that are influenced by regional variations and historical influences. Both countries have a rich and diverse culinary heritage that reflects their geography, climate, culture, religion, and trade. Some of the common elements of Indian and Pakistani cuisines are:

Rice: Rice is a staple food for both countries that is cooked in various ways such as plain rice, biryani, pulao, khichdi, etc.

Bread: Bread is another staple food for both countries that is made from different flours such as wheat, corn, millet, etc. Some of the common types of bread are roti, naan, paratha, kulcha, etc.

Curry: Curry is a generic term for a dish that consists of meat, vegetables, or lentils cooked in a sauce or gravy. The sauce or gravy can be made from various ingredients such as tomatoes, onions, yogurt, cream, coconut, spices, herbs, etc.

Spices: Spices are the essence of Indian and Pakistani cuisines that add flavor, color, and aroma to the dishes. Some of the common spices are turmeric, cumin, coriander, chili, ginger, garlic, cardamom, cinnamon, etc.

Sweets: Sweets are an integral part of both cuisines that are consumed on special occasions or as desserts. Some of the common sweets are halwa, kheer, barfi, ladoo, jalebi, gulab jamun, etc.

India and Pakistan also have distinctive clothing styles that reflect their cultural identities and preferences. Both countries have a variety of traditional and modern clothing options for men and women. Some of the common elements of Indian and Pakistani clothing are:

Sari: Sari is a long piece of cloth that is draped around the body in different ways by women. It is usually worn with a blouse and a petticoat. Sari is one of the most popular and elegant outfits in India and Pakistan.

Salwar Kameez: Salwar Kameez is a two-piece outfit that consists of a long shirt (kameez) and loose trousers (salwar). It is worn by both men and women in India and Pakistan. It can be paired with a scarf (dupatta) or a jacket (kurta).

Shalwar Qameez: Shalwar Qameez is a variation of Salwar Kameez that is more common in Pakistan. It consists of a long shirt (qameez) and baggy trousers (shalwar). It is worn by both men and women in Pakistan. It can be paired with a scarf (dupatta) or a jacket (sherwani).

Kurta Pyjama: Kurta Pyjama is a two-piece outfit that consists of a long shirt (kurta) and loose trousers (pyjama). It is worn by men in India and Pakistan. It can be paired with a scarf (dupatta) or a jacket (sherwani).

Lehenga Choli: Lehenga Choli is a three-piece outfit that consists of a long skirt (lehenga), a short blouse (choli), and a scarf (dupatta). It is worn by women in India and Pakistan. It is usually worn on festive occasions or weddings.

Arts and Entertainment

India and Pakistan have rich traditions of arts that include music, dance, literature, painting, etc. Both countries have produced some of the finest artists in the world who have contributed to the global cultural heritage. Some of the common elements of Indian and Pakistani arts are:

Music: Music is an integral part of both cultures that expresses emotions, stories, values, and beliefs. Both countries have classical music traditions that are based on ragas (melodic modes) and talas (rhythmic cycles). Some of the famous classical music genres are Hindustani music, Carnatic music, Qawwali music, Ghazal music, etc. Both countries also have folk music traditions that are influenced by regional and ethnic diversity. Some of the famous folk music genres are Bhangra, Dandiya, Sufi, etc. Both countries also have popular music traditions that are influenced by western and modern trends. Some of the famous popular music genres are Bollywood, Lollywood, Indipop, Rock, etc.

Dance: Dance is another important aspect of both cultures that showcases grace, beauty, and expression. Both countries have classical dance traditions that are based on ancient texts and traditions. Some of the famous classical dance forms are Bharatanatyam, Kathak, Odissi, Kathakali, etc. Both countries also have folk dance traditions that are influenced by regional and ethnic diversity. Some of the famous folk dance forms are Bhangra, Garba, Dhamal, etc. Both countries also have contemporary dance traditions that are influenced by western and modern trends. Some of the famous contemporary dance forms are Bollywood, Hip Hop, Breakdance, etc.

Literature: Literature is another vital aspect of both cultures that reflects creativity, wisdom, and imagination. Both countries have ancient literature traditions that are based on sacred texts and epics. Some of the famous ancient literature works are Vedas, Upanishads, Ramayana, Mahabharata, etc. Both countries also have medieval literature traditions that are based on poetry and prose. Some of the famous medieval literature works are Bhakti poetry, Sufi poetry, Mughal poetry, etc. Both countries also have modern literature traditions that are based on novels and short stories. Some of the famous modern literature works are Premchand, Tagore, Manto, Rushdie, etc.

Painting: Painting is another significant aspect of both cultures that depicts beauty, emotion, and vision. Both countries have traditional painting traditions that are based on religious and cultural themes. Some of the famous traditional painting styles are Miniature painting, Mughal painting, Rajput painting, Madhubani painting, etc. Both countries also have modern painting traditions that are based on abstract and realistic themes. Some of the famous modern painting styles are Bengal School of Art, Progressive Artists' Group, Cubism, Surrealism, etc.

Economy

GDP and Growth Rate

India and Pakistan have different levels of economic development and growth. India has a much larger and faster-growing economy than Pakistan in terms of various indicators. According to the World Bank, the nominal GDP of India was $2.875 trillion in 2020, making it the fifth-largest economy in the world after the United States, China, Japan, and Germany. The nominal GDP of Pakistan was $263.5 billion in 2020, making it the 43rd-largest economy in the world. The PPP GDP of India was $8.681 trillion in 2020, making it the third-largest economy in the world after China and the United States. The PPP GDP of Pakistan was $1.117 trillion in 2020, making it the 24th-largest economy in the world.

The GDP per capita of India was $2,099 in 2020, while the GDP per capita of Pakistan was $1,254 in 2020. The GDP growth rate of India was -7.3% in 2020, while the GDP growth rate of Pakistan was -0.4% in 2020. The GDP growth rate of India is expected to rebound to 8.3% in 2021 and 7.5% in 2022, while the GDP growth rate of Pakistan is expected to recover to 1.5% in 2021 and 4% in 2022.

Trade and Investment

India and Pakistan have a low level of bilateral trade and investment due to political barriers and security concerns. According to the World Bank, the total trade between India and Pakistan was $2.6 billion in 2019, which accounted for only 0.31% of India's total trade and 3.4% of Pakistan's total trade. The trade balance was in favor of India, as India exported $2 billion worth of goods to Pakistan and imported $0.6 billion worth of goods from Pakistan. The main items of trade between India and Pakistan were cotton, chemicals, fruits, vegetables, sugar, etc.

The total investment between India and Pakistan was also negligible due to lack of trust and confidence. According to the UNCTAD, the total FDI inflows from India to Pakistan were $28 million in 2019, while the total FDI inflows from Pakistan to India were $1 million in 2019. The main sectors of investment between India and Pakistan were telecommunications, banking, energy, etc.

India and Pakistan have potential for cooperation and integration in various sectors such as energy, agriculture, tourism, transport, etc. However, these sectors face many challenges such as political hostility, security risks, infrastructure gaps, regulatory hurdles, etc. Both countries need to overcome these challenges and build trust and confidence to enhance their trade and investment relations.

Challenges and Opportunities

India and Pakistan face similar challenges such as poverty, unemployment, inequality, corruption, etc. that hamper their economic development and social welfare. According to the World Bank, the poverty rate of India was 21.9% in 2011, while the poverty rate of Pakistan was 24.3% in 2015. The unemployment rate of India was 5.4% in 2020, while the unemployment rate of Pakistan was 4.5% in 2020. The Gini coefficient of India was 35.7 in 2011, while the Gini coefficient of Pakistan was 33.5 in 2015. The corruption perception index of India was 40 in 2020, while the corruption perception index of Pakistan was 31 in 2020.

India and Pakistan also have opportunities for development such as demographic dividend, digital transformation, regional integration, etc. that can boost their economic growth and social progress. According to the UNDP, the median age of India was 28.4 years in 2020, while the median age of Pakistan was 23.8 years in 2020. Both countries have a large and young population that can provide a productive workforce and a dynamic market for their economies. According to the ITU, the internet penetration rate of India was 50.1% in 2019, while the internet penetration rate of Pakistan was 35.1% in 2019. Both countries have a growing digital sector that can provide innovation and efficiency for their economies. According to the World Bank, the regional trade share of India was 5% in 2018, while the regional trade share of Pakistan was 8% in 2018. Both countries have a potential to increase their trade and cooperation with their neighboring countries such as China, Afghanistan, Iran, etc.

Military

Budget and Personnel

India and Pakistan have different levels of military capabilities and expenditures. India has a much larger and better-funded military than Pakistan in terms of various indicators. According to the SIPRI, the military budget of India was $72.9 billion in 2020, making it the third-largest military spender in the world after the United States and China. The military budget of Pakistan was $10.3 billion in 2020, making it the 24th-largest military spender in the world. The military budget of India accounted for 2.9% of its GDP in 2020, while the military budget of Pakistan accounted for 4% of its GDP in 2020.

The active personnel of India was 1.4 million in 2020, making it the second-largest active military force in the world after China. The active personnel of Pakistan was 654,000 in 2020, making it the seventh-largest active military force in the world. The reserve personnel of India was 2.1 million in 2020, while the reserve personnel of Pakistan was 550,000 in 2020. The paramilitary forces of India was 1.3 million in 2020, while the paramilitary forces of Pakistan was 482,000 in 2020.

Equipment and Technology

India and Pakistan have different levels of military equipment and technology that give them an edge or a disadvantage in potential conflicts. India has an edge over Pakistan in terms of military equipment and technology such as tanks, aircrafts, ships, missiles, nuclear weapons, etc. According to the IISS, the main equipment and technology of India and Pakistan in 2020 were:

Strategy and Doctrine

India and Pakistan have different military strategies and doctrines that shape their responses to potential conflicts and crises. India has a policy of no first use of nuclear weapons and credible minimum deterrence, which means that it will not use nuclear weapons unless attacked first and that it will maintain a sufficient number of nuclear weapons to inflict unacceptable damage on the adversary. India also has a doctrine of Cold Start, which means that it will launch a limited and swift conventional attack on Pakistan in response to a terrorist provocation or a border incursion. India also has a doctrine of surgical strikes, which means that it will conduct precise and targeted operations against terrorist camps or bases in Pakistan or elsewhere. Pakistan has a policy of first use of nuclear weapons and full spectrum deterrence, which means that it will use nuclear weapons in any scenario of war with India and that it will maintain a range of nuclear weapons to counter any threat from India. Pakistan also has a doctrine of strategic depth, which means that it will seek to maintain influence and support in Afghanistan and other neighboring countries to secure its western flank. Pakistan also has a doctrine of proxy war, which means that it will use non-state actors such as terrorists or militants to wage a low-intensity conflict against India.

Conclusion

India and Pakistan are two countries that have a complex and dynamic relationship that spans across various domains such as history, geography, culture, economy, and military. The two countries have a history of rivalry and conflict, but also a history of cooperation and goodwill. The two countries have different strengths and weaknesses, but also common challenges and opportunities. The two countries have different perspectives and interests, but also shared values and aspirations.

The future of India-Pakistan relations depends on how the two countries manage their differences and enhance their cooperation. The two countries need to resolve their outstanding issues such as Kashmir, terrorism, water sharing, etc. through peaceful dialogue and mutual respect. The two countries need to increase their trade and investment relations to foster economic growth and development. The two countries need to promote cultural and people-to-people exchanges to build trust and friendship. The two countries need to avoid military confrontation and nuclear escalation to ensure regional and global peace and security.

India and Pakistan are not only rivals, but also neighbors. They are not only competitors, but also partners. They are not only adversaries, but also friends. They are not only India and Pakistan, but also South Asia.

FAQs

Q: When did India and Pakistan become independent?

A: India and Pakistan became independent in 1947 after the partition of British India.

Q: How many wars have India and Pakistan fought?

A: India and Pakistan have fought four wars in 1947-48, 1965, 1971, and 1999.

Q: What is the main cause of conflict between India and Pakistan?

A: The main cause of conflict between India and Pakistan is the disputed territory of Kashmir.

Q: What is the main area of cooperation between India and Pakistan?

A: The main area of cooperation between India and Pakistan is trade and investment.

Q: What is the main challenge for peace between India and Pakistan?

A: The main challenge for peace between India and Pakistan is terrorism.

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